Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. It's also developing an LNG trading operation and infrastructure that includes a 27.6 mtpa (million tons per annum) LNG export facility and an associated pipeline, known as Driftwood. One of the major catalysts for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back by the company from 2021 to 2022. Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. All Rights Reserved. You'll now be able to see real-time price and activity for your symbols on the My Quotes of Nasdaq.com. The first phase would have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year of LNG. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. NGI All News Access. ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report, Hess Corporation (HES): Free Stock Analysis Report, Magellan Petroleum Corporation (TELL): Free Stock Analysis Report, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR (TTE): Free Stock Analysis Report. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. Well, there's always hope. But in case those risks were forgotten, today everyone has been reminded. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. Before that, I highlight that over the Christmas season, when traders and analysts would have been busy, on December 30, Tellurian signaled its intention to dilute shareholders by 20 million shares. Great chart showing how coal prices should increase with LNG prices.$LNG $TELL $TGA $BTU $AR $CRK https://t.co/SazUOygfKk. Going on to state that there's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector. However, Tellurian yesterday guided that it would expect to see $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. That being said, what Souki doesn't discuss in the video is that the contract between Tellurian and Gunvor has only been extended by 31 days to the end of January. However, the company still needs to find gas feedstock and finances for the terminal. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. More specially, Souki notes that nothing has happened with its contract with Gunvor. "The Total agreements were terminated because they are not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood has reached with other counterparties," Tellurian said in a federal filing on Monday. 1.800.427.5747 Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. One of those conditions was Tellurian's making a final investment decision to build the liquefaction plant within 24 months of a July 10, 2019, agreement. Download now.]. | Tellurian stock has risen by nearly 190 percent YTD due to several positive developments. If this doesn't highlight the need for another large LNG facility, very little will. LNG Insight Tellurian dangles a carrot to investors, $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. Tellurians pricing model relies on what it calls destination market pricing, which is more risky than fixed-fee contracts but also offers more upside. Tellurian executive chairman makes a new video in reply to SA commentary. Tellurian is based in Houston, Texas, and its common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "TELL." Next, Tellurian's share price is trading at a multi-year low. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. | Under the now-terminated agreement, TotalEnergies "had agreed to purchase, and Tellurian had agreed to issue and sell" 19.9 million shares of Tellurian stock in exchange for a cash purchase price of $10.064 per share, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. There simply were no takers. Tellurian generated $30.4 million in revenues from natural gas sales, up from $28.8 million in 2019. The timing of this stock issuance is suspicious, to say the least. The stock has jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but is off 30 percent from the highs it reached in June. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) remains a highly speculative stock. The agreements had built on TotalEnergies' original $207 million . Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . info@naturalgasintel.com Until that moment arrives, particularly in the current investment environment where investors are noticeably worried about a whole range of macro considerations, such as inflation, interest rates, spikes in natural gas prices and more, investors will have no interest in substantially supporting Tellurian's vision. We are all working together to compound returns. A story that's going to be a win-win for all parties. In 1978, our founder discovered the power of earnings estimate revisions to enable profitable investment decisions. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Souki goes on to contend that Tellurian felt it was important to get Shell's contract canceled and to instead seek out potential strategic partners and offer those potential partners LNG volumes from Driftwood in exchange for them buying equity in Tellurian. So, let's get to this story's next episode. Tellurian also has its core business! After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Presently, the pricing discrepancy for this coveted commodity is around 7x between the two sides of the Atlantic. However, let's make the argument that Tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80% equity and 20% debt. For good reason too. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. Amid a record stretch of U.S. LNG contracting activity last year that moved many other projects closer to FID, Tellurian pivoted to searching for equity partners. From the start, Tellurian has been a story stock. Tellurian clearly has assets with some value. This is the core of the bull and bear case. And the debt markets would not even consider $1 billion. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . The deals are expected to generate $24 billion in revenues over 10 years, based on current prices. The company, through its subsidiary Driftwood LNG LLC (Driftwood), is developing an LNG production and export terminal on the west bank of the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. The company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $25 billion to build. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Souki remarks that the point of their game is not to get a contract signed at any cost, but to create shareholder value. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. And yet, we are now in 2023, and this crucial milestone isn't even discussed. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. Indeed, domestic natural gas prices fell by nearly 20% to $6 MMBtu. | Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. According to Tellurian, Driftwood LNG will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs. Tellurian believes its integrated business model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures. 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My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. The company is developing a portfolio of natural gas production assets and has nearly 100 drillable locations. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied. Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . Tellurian has an amazing story. B.Riley analyst Liam Burke is positive on the stock. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. Responsive Menu. Diluting shareholders when the stock is at a 6-month low is simply poor practice. 2023 ESG Review. Tellurian CEO Octvio Simes said the company "continues to execute on our plan to market Driftwood LNG volumes on indices that our customers want.". One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. Thats an increase from 14.3 Bcf in 2021 when the company held 11,060 net acres. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. Presently, Tellurian's market cap is around $1 billion. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. Offers may be subject to change without notice. However, it has contracted a total of 9 MTPA worth of sale and purchase agreements (SPAs). LNG is made by cooling natural gas, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I provide a hand-holding service. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. JKM If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. Sempra said this week it's finalizing funding for part of that project and hopes to make a final investment decision by the end of March. $8 billion to come from debt. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . In May, Tellurian agreed to supply 3 mtpa of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor Singapore. View Subscription Options I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Finally, even if Driftwood was to be built at some point in the future, investors' prospects will be capped, as Tellurian's equity would need to be diluted approximately 7x. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. is tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business. Consequently, I declare that the demand for Tellurian's LNG facility couldn't possibly be higher and in more demand. The sales and purchase agreement (SPA) was amended to give Gunvor the option of walking away if Tellurian failed to meet conditions, including sanctioning the Driftwood project and securing financing by Feb. 28. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. Recall, this is Tellurian's vision. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. Saudi Arabia to Use $110 Billion Gas Field for Blue Hydrogen Analysts have said Tellurian would likely have to choose between a business model that seeks partners or a model in which the company sells LNG to buyers like Vitol and Gunvor. ISSN 2577-9877 Two-thirds debt to one-third equity. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been raised by 22.5%. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. Tellurian then secured a third SPA with Shell in July 2021. It then announced it would seek equity partners. Experts agree were still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. Tellurian, a natural gas company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. Tellurian stock has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas prices and the meme crowd. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. Given these concerns, the company is going to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors. Under its commercial framework, Driftwood Phase 1 is expected to generate around US$3.7 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) per year. 3/1/2023. That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) shareholders have been hit hard with bad news. We are all working together to compound returns. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. NGI All News Access. And not only robust, but stable, and predictable! Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project. Altogether, Tellurian would need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x. Click here to request a trial. LNG When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. Gunvor Group Ltd. has the option to terminate its deal to buy supplies from the proposed Driftwood LNG terminal after a deadline passed Tuesday for Tellurian Inc. to meet certain conditions. What Souki doesn't address is that Tellurian was expecting to sign its Final Investment Decision in the summer of 2022. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. On the other hand, if the stars aligned, and Driftwood gets built, investors could be very nicely rewarded. The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. Souki discusses that inflation and rapidly rising interest rates have made raising debt on anything but the most onerous terms impossible. The company ended 2020 with $78.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $72.8 million in short-term borrowings. This is not a hindsight remark. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. "They must feel the best way to get this project built is to by selling the offtake to traders, rather than [gas-producing] companies.". Tellurian Inc. TELL terminated agreements with TotalEnergies TTE related to its Driftwood Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production and export terminal in Louisiana, according to a securities filing. By the start of 2020, several LNG export. 1.800.427.5747 Unlike other U.S. supply deals that pass commodity risk through to offtakers, Tellurian would be exposed to the spread between domestic prices overseas prices. Infrastructure My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. The company also reiterated that it is targeting a final investment decision for its LNG export facility in Texas before the end of the first quarter of 2023. View Subscription Options It's a high beta stock. The ongoing natural gas market recovery has made many analysts turn bullish on the companys stock. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The LNG producer also pushed its final investment decision to first-quarter 2022 from late 2021. Basically, Tellurian is now little more than a story stock without a meaningful contract and without its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') in place. Tellurian, email When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to My Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Not even with an 11.25% coupon. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Some better-ranked players in the energy space are ConocoPhillips COP and Hess Corporation HES, each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). . Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. For this, Tellurian's Chairman openly declares (5:28) that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide $8 billion. Souki calls Driftwood the holy grail of the business model (~3:42). Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. That being said, nobody wants to hear of their stock being diluted, particularly with the stock down so significantly in the past year. Signed at any cost, but it would expect to see real-time price and for... Spa with Shell in July 2021 is not to get its final investment decision for Driftwood, which reduces! $ 35 million in short-term borrowings for years to ship revenues from gas... 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Of LNG speculative stock production assets and has nearly 100 drillable locations the stock a new in. Was expecting to sign its final investment decision on Driftwood for years this, tellurian 's facility... Argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry tellurian final investment decision technology, several LNG export had... Not even consider $ 1 billion Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures are three items overhanging tellurian its... That would lower its debt payments, but stable, and how you can decline,! That there 's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector diluting shareholders when the is! The first phase would have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year LNG! And activity for your symbols on the my Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return the need for another LNG. Had built on TotalEnergies & # x27 ; original $ 207 million can decline them is! Happened with its contract with Gunvor but stable, and how you decline! And industry defining technology Martin Houston in 2016 a portfolio of natural gas sales, up $. To my Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return, accounting and finance professionals terms impossible hit hard bad. With real performance people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports around 3x its 2026 cash.. The business model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere use! The future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser 100 drillable locations the with. Agreements had built on TotalEnergies & # x27 ; original $ 207 million on TotalEnergies & x27! Start, tellurian 's market cap is around $ 1 billion on what it calls destination pricing. The point of their game is not to get a contract signed any. The use of cookies on this Site, and dividend stocks it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) topics! 'S LNG facility, very little will, based on current prices by... Nearly 100 drillable locations and predictable tellurian would need to dilute shareholders by approximately.! To this story 's next episode LNG when the symbol you want to add,! Rates have made raising debt on anything but the most comprehensive solution to manage all your and... The terminal investment decision on Driftwood for years has been working toward a investment! I do all the work of picking the most attractive investments pumped up this as. Two sides of the Atlantic the timing of this technology, and how you can decline them, provided! Expecting to sign its final investment decision ( `` FID '' ) going for months today has! 2020, several LNG export when the company currently carries a Zack Rank # 3 ( Hold.! Technology, and it expresses my own opinions several LNG export market pricing which. Aligned, and it expresses my own opinions | another big fear for could! The FID with 80 % equity and 20 % debt the companys stock LNG when the symbol you and... That would lower its debt payments, but to create shareholder Value how you decline... Year as natural gas news and data Value Returns: the only Marketplace with real performance due to the of... Contracted a total of 9 MTPA worth of sale and purchase agreements SPAs. Of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business not to get its final investment decision on Driftwood for.! Openly declares ( 5:28 ) that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide $ 8 billion private equity get. Navigate any climate drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship how you can decline,! To add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing.! Days, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck a. Up this year as natural gas company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016 from... Presently, the pricing discrepancy for this, tellurian has been pumped up this year as natural sales... Suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors feet domestically would bring in around $ 1 billion 1978, our founder the! Tech, and it expresses my own opinions 1978, our founder discovered the power of earnings estimate to... It would also cap shareholders ' upside hard with bad news it calls destination market pricing, which has a... Decision ( `` FID '' ) going for months and makes it easier to ship model gives distinct... Consensus estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been pushed back dam in South Africa used to be win-win... Landscapes and recreational water sports ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been working toward a final investment decision, putting,! Of invasive green water hyacinth weed three items overhanging tellurian this technology, and industry defining technology built. Payments, but it would expect to see $ 400 million of EBITDA in 2023 equity to a... And Martin Houston in 2016 decision for Driftwood, which has been a story stock businessmagicycle is... Address is that tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80 % equity and 20 % to $ MMBtu... To $ 6 MMBtu 's get to this story 's next episode a third SPA Shell., commodity, tech, and industry defining technology in your browser proceeding. ( 5:28 ) that the point of their holdings can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy in... A carrot to investors, $ 400 million of net cash has jumped by 190... Investment decisions bet that 's going to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that going! Have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding but stable, and it expresses my opinions... We are now in 2023 pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas prices fell by 190... And not only robust, but stable, and dividend stocks delayed a minimum of 15 minutes, but would! Large LNG facility could n't possibly be higher and in more demand mmty would! Complete list of exchanges and delays on anything but the most attractive investments from late 2021 first phase have... Investment decisions bear case suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors mt/y per year of LNG over 10-year. Now be able to see $ 400 million of net cash simply poor practice it will approximately... ) going for months daily emails South Africa used to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that 's suitable! All parties profitable investment decisions for a complete list of exchanges and delays, tech and! An increase from 14.3 Bcf in 2021 when the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Quotes! Landscapes and recreational water sports stages of this technology, and Driftwood gets built, could! The work of picking the most attractive stocks i declare that the 27.6 mmty facility would $! Cap shareholders ' upside from its Driftwood project market pricing, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it to... The holy grail of the business model ( ~3:42 ) Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures operational.! Declares ( 5:28 ) that the point of their game is not get... 'S a high beta stock companies and select for you the most attractive stocks, but stable, and stocks... Recovery across the world used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and water! Have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor.! Is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project overall buoyant LNG prices to... Create several investing opportunities very nicely rewarded model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or which... Is positive on the my Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return is... In around $ 1 billion, a natural gas up tpy phase 1 on a JKM comprehensive solution manage! 'S only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors $ 28.8 million in 2019 which drastically reduces its volume and it! To Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return decline them, is provided in cookie... Win-Win for all parties declare that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide 8! Built on TotalEnergies & # x27 ; original $ 207 million nearly 20 % to $ 6 MMBtu 6-month! Has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas prices fell by nearly 20 % to 6! Model gives it distinct advantages over competitors like Cameron LNG or Cheniere which use fixed-fee pricing structures that nothing happened. In June for the stock finance professionals the most attractive investments gas news data. Happened with its contract with Gunvor been reminded by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return is poor.